Thought Series

2021: First Quarter Wrap Our 2020 Last Quarter wrap suggested a mantra for 2021: “don’t chase the market - let it come to you”. The volatility experienced by investors in the first quarter of 2021 gave plenty of heartburn, but also great investment opportunities for those who patiently bought at dips....

2020 has come to a close. To all our readers we hope you have crossed it without any long-lasting scars. While we begin 2021 with renewed optimism hoping 2021 puts the pandemic behind us, there is also a need for abundant caution. Ballooning budget deficits, inflationary pressures and market corrections...

Starting with the U.S.: Low interest rates for the next 2-3 years. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in its meeting in September signalled that the Fed will keep key interest rates near zero through 2023 – an addition of one more year to the previous guidance. The Fed will...

Starting with the U.S.: The Fed wants to (and is) keeping control… The last quarter was all about the Fed QE program, targeted to soften the impact of economic disruptions and to ensure US business would have sufficient liquidity. Closer to the end of the quarter the results started coming...

Starting with the U.S.: A recession is on the cards… It is amazing how quickly the outlook has changed – the global economy is struggling and central banks are doing all they can to soften the landing. In times when the whole world is impacted, economies with a strong (pre-event)...

Starting with the U.S. - The Goldilocks Year... Our 2018 year-end macro wrap hinted at the U.S. entering a “Goldilocks period for equities” i.e. an environment of low inflation and low interest rates. U.S. equities did not disappoint – if anything, 2019 was a year of stellar performance. Consumers account...

It has been 3 months since our “2019: Second Quarter Wrap”. Now that the 3rd Quarter is over, let’s see where we are: Starting with the U.S.: The yield curve may not be the best predictor of a recession... The Fed’s trillion-dollar balance sheet has put downward pressure on the...